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Route: Auckland, NZ to Cape Horn Position: 36 56s/178 14e at approx 1330 utc Wed, Nov 22, 2006 Prepared: 1400utc Wed, Nov 22, 2006 Summary: overall, the pattern still looks favorable to get with mainly following winds over the next 6-7 days or so. But it maybe on the rougher side for a period on Fri with winds possible into the 30s ahead of a cold front 1) Area of high pressure (1025 mb) is located near or just W of Cape Rienga, while weak front resides to the E and SE near 179-180w 2) Generally a W-SW or SW flow in between systems right now a) Mainly fair skies offshore, but b) There are some clouds to the W and SW over North Island 3) In the next 24 hrs, winds shift into the W to NW, as you get ahead of a trough along the E coast of New Zealand. a) Will have to gybe as wind shifts into NW 4) Meanwhile, low pressure will be organizing further south and to the SE of NZL, which will head SE over the next couple days. a) Cold front off this system tracks to the E 5) Look for an increasing NW flow ahead of this front thru Fri and into Sat. a) Wind speeds into the 20s, and maybe periods of gusts into the 30s to 40 kts, and b) Will be an increasing chance and amount of showers and squalls c) There is small chance for gusts to 45 kts, if you run into a stronger squall 6) Cold front shifts to the east and will get into a lighter W to W-SW flow during Sat a) Wind speeds down to 20 kts, possible less at times 7) Another low develops well to the south later in the weekend into early next week. 8) This system will send another cold front to the E by early next week. a) Wind shifts back into the NW on Sun, and b) Will increase again during Mon – possible to 30 kts 9) Not sure if this front catches you or not, and may feel more influence from high pressure building to the NE a) Mainly NW winds into next Tue 10) We now have tropical Storm Yani located just to the SE of the Soloman Islands near 12.6s/162.7e a) Top winds now to 45 kts b) Heading SE (160) at 3 kts c) Expected to strengthen some and head S or S-SW over the next 48 hrs, but d) lots of uncertainty with long term track, but don’t see this system affecting you Routing: can head E-SE with the W-SW breeze, but then will have to gybe as wind shifts into the NW. Overall, it looks good to head east between 38 and 39S into next week. Wind Forecast Wind direction TRUE, speed in kts, and Time is UTC Wed, Nov 22 18: 240-260/15-22 Weather...Fair to partly cloudy Seas 2-4 ft, higher to the E and SE, especially past E Cape tonight Thu. Nov 23 00: 250-270/10-15 nr 37 20S/179E But watch for lighter W to NW breeze closer to the coast 06: bcmg 300-330/11-16 12: 320-340/12-20 18: 320-340/16-24 Weather…Variably to mostly cloudy, chance for periods with showers or perhaps isolated squalls. Some gusts to 30kts possible. Seas building to 7-9 ft, wind wave chop with SW swell Fri. Nov 24 00: 290-320/17-25 nr 38 30S/176W 06: 300-330/20-28 12: 310-340/25-40 18: 270-300/24-35 Weather….Variably to mostly cloudy, scattered showers/squalls possible. Potential for gusts to 40-45 kts ahead of any stronger showers/squalls. Seas 8-12ft, rougher chop with SW swell Sat. Nov 25 00: 260-290/22-32 nr 38 30S/171W 06: 240-260/20-32 behind frontal passage 12: 240-260/20-30 18: 250-270/17-25 Weather….Variable clouds with scattered passing showers, maybe squall or two. Watch out for gusts into the 30s ahead of any activity Seas up to 10-14 ft, higher to the south – wind wave chop with SW swell Sun. Nov 26 00: 290-320/15-22 nr 38 30S/166W 12: 310-340/18-25 Weather….Variably cloudy, increasing chance for showers at night Seas 10-15 ft, higher to the south – SW swell Mon. Nov 27 00: 320-340/20-30 nr 38 30S/161W 12: 300-330/22-32 Weather….Variably to mostly cloudy, chance for scattered showers Seas 10-15 ft, higher to the south, SW swell Tue. Nov 28 00: 320-340/15-22 nr 38 30S/156W 12: 320-350/12-20 Weather….Variably cloudy, chance for passing showers Seas 9-13 ft, SW swell Best Regards, Chris Wasserback |
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