Event: Etchells racing in Biscayne Bay
Summary… 1) Big high pressure over the western Carolinas will move slowly E this weekend 2) Lots of clouds on satellite animation a) no clearing areas right now in Dade or Broward Counties, but some clearing from Palm Beach County northward b) expecting mostly cloudy this morning and maybe a brief shower, but a little sunshine will develop this afternoon c) keep in mind, once we have a mix of sunshine and clouds, the breezy will become quite puffy/gusty and more unstable – winds will tend to be stronger under any blue sky areas and lighter underneath a big area of clouds d) small chance of a shower, but could gust to 26-30 kts on the leading edge of any shower 3) Winds are currently 040-060 and 14-18 kts a) winds are lightest along the shoreline 4) Will play winds mainly 040-055 all morning a) winds will spend much of the time 040-050 and even occasionally in the 030s 5) With the cloud cover, will play wind speeds 14-18 kts and occasionally up to 20 a) there will always be more wind speed offshore than in the top of Biscayne Bay, where you guys are racing 6) With developing sunshine, will call for wind speeds to briefly touch 17-21 kts before easing back to 14-18 kts late afternoon 7) Little change in wind directions, mainly 040-060, but a) wind directions will be mostly frequently 040-050 8) No important shear on the vertical wind profiles, so a) once we get a mix of clouds/sunshine and the breeze becomes puffy, there will be more instability in the wind direction b) if a puff is located on the left side of the race course, look for a left shift and if a puff on the right, look for a right shift c) wind speeds will be stronger offshore than inshore this morning, so may see a bit more breeze on the right side of the race course, looking upwind, but d) once sunshine develops, the puffs/wind pressure may be more random with a sunny shoreline occasionally having more wind speed – just remember, the character of the breeze will change with developing sunshine Wind forecasts Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is EST
General weather…Mostly cloudy this morning with a brief, squally shower possible. Some sunshine develops this afternoon with highs in the low 70’s. Error factor… 1) It is entirely possible for wind speeds to be 2-3 kts higher than forecast all day – if this is going to occur, wind speeds will be higher than forecast by 0900/1000est on the flip side, if skies remain mostly cloudy all afternoon, wind speeds will stay more in the 14-18 kt range 2) Max left this morning will be 030s a) puff/shower on the left side of the race course could pull winds as far left as 020-030 3) Max right this morning will be 060ish a) max right this afternoon will be 060s-070 in any puff Sunday, Dec 10 1) High pressure slides slowly E from the Carolina coast 2) Still a mix of clouds/sunshine, but highs will reach 75-77 3) 040-060 winds during the morning will become 060-080 during the afternoon 4) Wind speeds mainly in the 12-20 kt range and mainly occurring during sunny periods 0900: 040-060/11-17 1100: 040-060/13-18 1300: 050-070/14-20 1500: 060-080/15-20 1700: 060-080/15-20 Weather…Mix of clouds and sunshine with highs 75-77. Best Regards, Ken Campbell |
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