day race forecast

Text Box: Event:		2014 Jaguar Cup, Florida State Championship, Biscayne Bay
Forecast for:	Saturday, February 8, 2014
Outlook for:	Sunday, February 9, 2014
Prepared:	0630est Saturday, February 8, 2014
1) Weak low pressure is forming offshore Georgia. This low will move quickly ENE today
   a) the low’s weak cold front, over central Florida this morning, will move SE and could produce a shower or thundershower tonight in Miami
   b) this front will be right over Miami/Biscayne Bay this time tomorrow
2) Small area of clouds and a brief shower over the Bay/Miami right now
   a) this activity is moving towards the NW and is on the leading edge of a wind shift from the E into the SE
   b) this activity should be gone by 0900est, but will stabilize the air mass and cause a period of very light winds early this morning – will start the forecast with a 130-160 wind of 3-7 kts and it could be lighter
3) Winds veer throughout today
   a) gradient wind is 130-150 early morning, 160-180 early afternoon, and 180-200 late afternoon
   b) lots of right shear, about 5 degrees in the lower 500 feet – puffs/gusts/higher wind speeds will frequently favor righties
   c) the right shear is 10-15 degrees between 1500 and 2000 feet this afternoon – if the western shoreline is sunny, we must watch out for larger righty gusts/puffs coming off the shoreline this afternoon
4) Late morning/afternoon should become mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid 80s, 28/29c
5) Very light winds to start the morning, but by late morning we should see a combination of SE
    sea breeze and SSE gradient wind
   a) will forecast 130-160 and wind speeds 5-8 kts by 1100est – the righties and puffs are most likely near the western shoreline, but during the lulls, we will probably get a lefty
   b) the lefty lulls could also mix with a lefty sea breeze build of a kt or so, but this small breeze build will tend to come from the middle and eastern Bay
6) Forecast will favor the lower end of the weather models wind speed ranges
   a) will forecast 6-10 kts early afternoon and up to 8-12 kts late afternoon
   b) if wind speeds exceed 10-12 kts this afternoon, the higher wind speeds will be righties coming off the western shoreline and the wind direction range could shift 5-10 degree right with the higher wind speeds
7) The breeze will be in conflict this afternoon with the sea breeze favoring lefties during the lulls
   and the threat of 10-15 degree righty gusts/puffs coming off the shoreline
   a) will forecast 140-170 1300/1400est, 150-180 1500/1600est, and 160-180 late afternoon
   b) if we see higher wind speeds, wind directions could be 10-15 degrees right of the forecast

Wind forecast
Wind directions are MAGNETIC, wind speed in kts, and time is EST

0900  130-160/ 4-7
1000  130-170/ 3-6 
1100  130-160/ 5-8
1200  130-160/ 5-9
1300  140-170/ 6-9
1400  140-170/ 6-10
1500  150-180/ 7-11
1600  150-180/ 7-12
1700  160-180/ 8-12

Weather…Chance of an early shower then clearing to mostly sunny skies and warm with highs in the mid 80s, 28/29c. 

Error Factor…Confidence is average
1) Wind speeds could be 1-2 kts higher than forecast this afternoon, but
   a) if hazy, then wind speeds will average near the lower end of the wind speed range
2) Higher wind speeds will favor righties and lower wind speeds will favor lefties
3) Max left late morning/early afternoon will be 120s-130
   a) max left late afternoon will be 130s-140
4) Max right will be 160s-170 mid-day and 190s mid to late afternoon

Sun, Feb 9
1) Cold front drifts SE thru the Miami area during the morning
   a) probably shower or rumble thunder during the morning. If the cold front pushes S of Biscayne Bay, showers will end and the breeze will freshen from the NW, N, and NE
2) Will forecast light and shifty NW-N winds during the morning
3) Stronger N-NE winds developing during the afternoon
   a) wind speeds up to 10-16 kts late afternoon

0900: 330-350/ 4-8, brief gust 15-20 as a shower or t-shower passes by
1100: 340-010/ 3-7
1300: 360-020/ 6-10
1500: 010-030/ 8-12
1700: 010-030/12-16
Weather…A shower/t-shower during the morning, ending early afternoon then slow clearing. Temps mainly in the low/mid 70s, 23/24c

Kind regards, Ken Campbell


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