Offshore racing forecast

info@commandersweather.com

Text Box: From: Commanders’ Weather Corp
154 Broad St,  Suite 1517
Nashua, NH 03062
Tel: 603-882-6789, Fax: 603-882-6661
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Please hold for the PRIVATE and EXCLUSIVE use of:

                        Stan Honey and the crew of “Alfa Romeo”

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Event:                          2009 Transpac – LA to Hawaii – starts July 5th
Start:                           1300pdt Sunday, July 5, 2009
Prepared:                    0400pdt Sunday, July 5, 2009

Summary…
1) The GFS has continued its’ trend of weakening and moving the high pressure cell faster to the SE
   a) I have adjusted the routing further S, as winds will be mucho lighter near 29-30N/crossing 135-145W
   b) the European model continues to show its’ particular bias, not weakening the high pressure as fast and slower to move the high to the S and SE – there is more wind speed in general on the European weather model Tue – Thu and less of a problem being near or N of 29N
   c) the European weather model could be correct, but the safest route is to favor a more southerly route, which means a bit steeper dive to the SW today and tomorrow
2) The high pressure cell is located near 45N/154W this morning
   a) the earlier starters are still struggling this morning, since there is a bubble of high pressure near 28N/130W, but this will disappear completely over the next 24 hrs
   b) no tropical low SSE of Cabo San Lucas, so I continue to not be concerned about any tropical storms for this race
3) Conditions for today are very similar to what we have talked about previously and what we have seen
    in previous days
   a) little in the way of low clouds near Long Beach
   b) onshore wind should develop quickly this morning and will be freshening/veering for the start – highest wind speeds this afternoon will probably be close to the start area, but in general 11-17 kts all afternoon
   c) winds will be WNW and about 15 kts west of Catalina. Winds will veer and freshen during the evening, peaking a little above 20 kts. A bit more wind speed E of San Nicholas and I have you aiming for 32N/120W followed by 29N/125W
   d) winds will diminish after midnight
4) Wind speeds may briefly fall to 10-13 kts Mon afternoon or night, but in general no very light wind
    areas for you on Mon/Tue, as winds slowly veer into the NE by Tue afternoon/evening
5) By Wed morning, the GFS has the high pressure cell near 40N/146-150W at 1029mbs
   a) this high weakens to 1026mbs near 37N/145W by Thu morning and then spreads out west to east by Fri/Sat, between 30-35N
   b) the GFS screams, “do not go too far N” on Wed/Thu, as there is always more wind speed to the S. The European allows you to go further N, without sailing out of the breeze
   c) near and west of 135-140W, Tue night/Wed, winds will occasionally veer into the 060s wind direction range, which will allow you to go to port and get further S
6) In general, trade winds are a bit lighter on this forecast and no 20+ kts are expected until near and
   S of 24N
7) Trade wind shower activity will be increasing S of 26-27N
   a) strongest winds will be on the western edge of the showers/squalls and it will be very, very important to never get caught underneath or behind these squally showers, as wind speeds become very light
   b) the squally showers are strongest and most widespread late at night/around daybreak and wind gusts could touch 30 kts or a bit more, but
   c) the squally showers weaken quickly after sunrise and should be avoided, since the clouds/remaining showers will become major league breeze killers!

Waypoints
1) Just N of Catalina and then 4-8 miles W of the Catalina to miss the windward side wind shadow
2) Aiming for 32N/120W to 29N/125W to 28N/130W

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are MAGNETIC, wind speed in kts, and time is PDT

Sunday, July 5
0800: light/variable, but 260-280/ 7-11 offshore
1100: 240-270/ 7-11
1400: 260-280/12-17
1700: 270-290/15-20
2000: 300-320/16-22
2300: 300-330/14-20
Weather…Maybe a few low clouds early this morning, but generally mostly sunny today. Becoming partly cloudy to cloudy at night with NW swell 5-7 feet

Monday, July 6
0500: 310-340/12-17
1100: 330-360/11-16, near 30 15N/123 05W
1700: 350-010/12-17
2300: 010-030/10-15
Weather…Cloudy to partly cloudy with NW-N swell of 4-7 feet

Tuesday, July 7
0500: 360-020/11-16
1100: 010-030/12-17, near 28N/130W
1700: 030-050/12-17
2300: 040-060/13-18
Weather…Cloudy to partly cloudy with NE swell of 4-7 feet

Wed, July 8
0500: 050-070/11-16 and going to port, wind speeds will be 10-15 kts N of 29N and increasing to the S, so I gybe to port on a favorable wind oscillation and get some southing
1100: 045-065/13-18, near 26 50N/136 45W
1700: 040-060/12-17
2300: 050-070/13-18
Weather…Partly cloudy, maybe a shower. NE seas of 5-7 feet

Thu, July 9
0500: 050-070/12-17
1100: 050-070/12-17, near 26 55/143W
1700: 050-070/13-18
2300: 060-080/13-18, still working to get S on favorable oscillations
Weather…Still far N for the trade wind showers, so partly cloudy, maybe a shower and NE seas of 5-7 feet

Fri, July 10
0500: 060-080/13-18
1100: 070-090/13-18, near 24 50N/148 30W
1700: 070-090/15-20
2300: 070-090/16-22
Weather…Changeable skies Fri – Sun with a scattering of trade wind showers, especially late at night/1st thing in the morning – could be brief gusts to 30 kts. Seas ENE at 5-7 feet

Sat, July 11
0500: 070-090/16-22
1100: 070-090/17-23, near 22 20N/155 30W
1700: 060-080/16-22
2300: 070-050/20-10, Oahu

Sun, July 12 - Oahu
0500: 040-070/ 7-14
1100: 070-090/12-18

Best regards,  Ken Campbell

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